The Business of Cyber Security

Public Company Earnings — Cyber Signals

Cybersecurity-relevant content only, extracted from the most recent public earnings calls (2026). For each name: the cyber metric that matters, plus the AI/strategy/M&A signal. Figures are as reported. Sources at the bottom.

An additional earnings signal comes from breach victims outside the security sector. On its fiscal-Q1 2026 call in late May 2026, toy manufacturer Hasbro disclosed that a March 2026 network intrusion would delay roughly $40–60M of Consumer Products revenue to the back half of the year and carry about $20M of one-time remediation operating expense in 2026 — a quantified example, per Wall Street research, of a cyber event's material impact on a non-technology public company.

Big Tech with significant cyber assets

Company Cyber-relevant signal (2026)
Microsoft Security is among the largest franchises in the industry (>$20B as last officially disclosed, FY2022; ~$37B cited in 2026 commentary, est.). Bundling Security Copilot into all E5; Security Copilot customers 2x YoY; a dozen new Copilot agents across Defender, Entra, Intune, Purview; 24B Copilot interactions audited by Purview (+9x YoY); data-security triage agents handled 2M+ alerts in a quarter. Framing: "the physics of cybersecurity has changed" as AI compresses vuln-to-exploit; Microsoft sim-ships Defender protections for AI-discovered vulns. (Aggregation in action — see 03.)
Alphabet / Google Q1 2026 Google Cloud $20.0B, +63% YoY. Wiz acquisition ($32B, largest in Alphabet history) closed March 2026, "exceeding expectations," reporting within Google Cloud (low-single-digit-pt margin headwind for 2026). New Gemini-powered "Agentic Defense" agents for threat detection, continuous red teaming, automated remediation. Cloud RPO ~$460B (~6 years of revenue).
Cisco Q4 FY26 (quarter ended Jul 25 2026, rep. Aug 12 2026): record total revenue $17.3B (+18% YoY), above the top of guidance. Security revenue $2.2B, +14% YoY — the first double-digit security print since the Splunk acquisition, with growth attributed to Splunk, network security and SASE; observability (which carries Splunk) $275M, +6%; networking $9.8B, +28% remained the growth leader. In-quarter demand markers: 1,500+ customers bought new security products including Secure Access and Hypershield, firewall orders +30%, and Splunk added 280+ new logos, passing its 1,000-logo annual target. CEO Chuck Robbins tied the demand to the agentic threat surface: "the rise of agentic AI is expanding the threat landscape, driving demand for our security and observability solutions to help monitor agent behavior." Prior quarter for contrast — Q3 FY26 (rep. May 13 2026): revenue $15.8B (+12%) with security ~flat YoY at ~$2.0B as the Splunk on-prem→cloud transition dragged the reported line (Cisco had underwritten roughly a 50/50 cloud/on-prem split and landed nearer ~2/3 cloud), even as security orders ex-Splunk grew double digits. The two prints together date the drag: roughly 28 months from the $28B Splunk close (Mar 18 2024) to a security line growing double digits again — see Ch. 18 "Why Most Acquisitions Fail."

Platform pure-plays

Company Cyber-relevant signal (2026)
Palo Alto Networks Q3 FY26 (rep. Jun 2, 2026): revenue $3.0B, +31%; NGS ARR $8.1B, +60% — but ~$1.6B of that ARR (and $388M of revenue) was acquired (CyberArk + Chronosphere), so much of the "platform" growth is bought, not organic; RPO $18.4B, +36%; ~2,280 platformized customers at ~120% NRR; Prisma AIRS the fastest-scaling product in company history; "you need AI to defend against AI" / "AI must fight AI." FY26 guide raised to $11.415–11.425B (+24%). Completed CyberArk ($25B) Feb 2026. Notably, stock fell on a beat-and-raise — the valuation reset in action. (The platform grows by buying point products and reselling into an owned base — see Book Ch. 6 & 33.)
CrowdStrike Q1 FY27 (rep. Jun 3, 2026): revenue $1.39B, +26% (acceleration for a 4th straight quarter); record Q1 net new ARR $256M, +32%; ending ARR $5.51B, +24%; record FCF $468M (34% of revenue), op income $326M (24% margin, +62%), Rule of 40 = 59. Raised FY27 net-new-ARR growth guide +520bps at the midpoint; board approved a 4-for-1 stock split (record date Jun 25 2026; additional shares distributed after close Jul 1 2026; split-adjusted trading expected to begin Jul 2 2026). Charlotte AI = agentic SOC analyst, autonomous triage/response at machine speed ("flattening the hiring curve"); NextGen SIEM displacing legacy SIEM (8-figure Falcon Flex expansions). Module-adoption (demand-side consolidation, as of Apr 30 2026): 51% / 35% / 25% of customers run 6+ / 7+ / 8+ modules — a quarter of the base has voluntarily standardized 8+ functions on one platform (the buyer-pull proof; see Book Ch 03). Kurtz: "best positioned… for the AI age." (The post-outage recovery is complete on the numbers — a clean platform compounder; reinforces the valuation two-tier where durable AI-SOC leaders hold premium multiples.)
Zscaler Q3 FY26 (ended Apr 30 2026, reported May 26 2026): revenue $850.5M (+25%); ARR $3,525M (+25%, +21% ex-Red Canary MDR tuck-in), net new ARR $166M in-quarter; non-GAAP operating margin an all-time-high 23%; FCF $136M (+14%). FY26 guide: revenue $3.33–3.34B (~24.6%), ARR $3.74–3.75B (~24%). Three pillars: AI Security, Zero Trust Everywhere, Data Security; momentum in AI Protect; partnered with OpenAI. Chaudhry: Zero Trust SASE "never more essential" against frontier-model/agent threats.
Fortinet Q1 2026 (rep. May 6 2026): revenue $1.85B (+20% YoY), product revenue $645M (+41%); billings +31% YoY to $2.09B; non-GAAP operating margin 36% (GAAP 31%), record adjusted FCF $1.07B (+27%, ~57.6% margin — seasonally FCF-heavy Q1); Rule of 40 ≈ 56 (growth + op margin). Unified SASE = 25% of billings, +31% (vs. ~18% market CAGR; $79B TAM) as customers move off perimeter firewalls to zero trust. FortiOS 8.0 adds AI-driven security + quantum-safe. FY26 revenue guide raised to ~15% growth. Riding the firewall refresh + SASE pivot.
SentinelOne Q1 FY27 (ended Apr 30 2026, reported May 28 2026): revenue $276.7M (+21% YoY); ending ARR $1,163M (+23%), record net-new-ARR growth; $100k+ ARR customers 1,702 (+17%); non-GAAP EPS $0.04 (beat); FY27 revenue guide $1.195–1.205B, non-GAAP op income raised to $115–125M. Emerging solutions (Purple AI, cloud, data) reached ~half of total ARR; AI Security ARR nearly doubled. Persistent takeover speculation given AI differentiation + sub-scale-vs-platforms position.

Identity

Company Cyber-relevant signal (2026)
Okta ARR $3.0B, +~12%; newer products (Identity Governance, Privileged Access, AI agent security) ≈25% of bookings — "agentic identity" positioning; Identity Governance the strongest new product. Slower-growth, profitable identity incumbent.
CyberArk Pre-close Q3 2025 revenue $342.8M, +43% (subscription-led); flagged securing agentic AI as a "tremendous opportunity." Acquired by Palo Alto ($25B), closed Feb 11, 2026 — the identity-inflection deal.

Exposure management

Company Cyber-relevant signal (2026)
Tenable Q1 2026 revenue $262.1M, +9.6%; non-GAAP op margin 23.6%; FY guide ~$1.07B. The exposure-management pivot showing traction (stock +45% in 2026).
Qualys Tenable's most direct vuln/exposure-management rival; steady, profitable, slower-growth — a consolidation/roll-up watch item.
Rapid7 Q2 2026 (quarter ended Jun 30, reported Aug 2026) revenue $210.9M, −1.5%; ARR $824.0M, −2.0% — the ARR line is contracting. Non-GAAP op income $28.9M; FCF $31.9M; cash and securities $702.6M. Board approved a 2026 Restructuring Plan cutting ~12% of the workforce (Aug 7), $10–11M of charges, targeting a 20% non-GAAP operating margin in Q4 2026. FY26 guide: revenue $837–841M, ARR ~$812M at (3)%, non-GAAP op income $129–133M, FCF ~$130M. A growth-to-margin conversion at a vuln-management incumbent long cited as a take-private candidate — see 03k.

Network, web & data resilience

Company Cyber-relevant signal (2026)
Cloudflare Q1 2026 revenue +34%; 332k+ paying customers; agent-driven traffic doubled early 2026; launched Cloudflare Mesh to secure the AI-agent lifecycle. Security + AI-agent infrastructure convergence.
Check Point Q1 2026 revenue $668.4M, +5% (slight miss); security subscriptions +11% to $323.2M (high-margin recurring); Infinity platform; achieved GovRAMP. Mature, profitable, slower-growth.
Rubrik Subscription ARR $1.46B, +34% (FY26); Q1 FY27 $1.57B, +32%. Positioning as "agentic cyber resilience — data, identity, and AI in one architecture" + an AI-governance push. Backup/recovery re-cast as cyber resilience.
Varonis Total SaaS ARR $683.2M, +69% (29% ex-conversions) amid on-prem→SaaS transition; FY26 guide $814–845M SaaS ARR; launched Atlas AI security platform. Data-security incumbent re-rating on AI.

Consumer cyber safety

Company Cyber-relevant signal (2026)
Gen Digital (Norton, Avast, LifeLock) FY26 revenue $5.0B, growth accelerating to double digits (Q4 +27% to $1.28B); 79M paid customers (+11M YoY); launched Norton Neo AI browser security. Consumer cyber + the MoneyLion fintech adjacency.

Cross-read — what the calls say together

  1. AI security is the universal growth vector. Every name is monetizing AI security (Prisma AIRS, Charlotte AI, Purple AI, Zscaler AI Protect, Gemini Agentic Defense, Microsoft Security Copilot, Varonis Atlas) — confirming AI Security as the migrating profit pool.
  2. Platform NRR is the compounding engine — and the ~120% proof line is demanding. Where disclosed, platform/land-and-expand retention is what the market pays for, but even the leaders press against the ~120% second-product threshold rather than clearing it easily. Most-recently-reported net retention: PANW (NGS) ~120% (Q3 FY26) · CrowdStrike DBNR ~119% (Q1 FY27) · Zscaler DBNRR ~114% (Q3 FY26) · SentinelOne ~110% ($100K+ cohort) · Okta ~107% (Q1 FY27) — periods ended ~Apr 30 2026; definitions vary by vendor. Sustained >120% = "land-and-expand works" (a real second-product engine); a platform story at ~107% has not yet built one (Unit Economics, Valuation; see Book Ch. 19).
  3. Legacy is being displaced — but the incumbent SIEM franchise is not draining as fast as the flat quarters implied. SIEM is the battlefield: CrowdStrike/Microsoft/Google displacing Splunk/QRadar. Cisco's own security revenue ran ~flat YoY through Q3 FY26 (down 4% two quarters earlier) mid-transition, then returned to +14% in Q4 FY26 with Splunk named as a growth contributor — evidence that the model-change drag on an acquired SIEM is a multi-year transition cost rather than, on this record, a permanent loss of the pool (Sub-Segment Deep Dives, Economics, SecOps & SIEM; see Ch. 4).
  4. The reset is real even for winners. PANW fell on a beat-and-raise; multiples re-rated despite ~14% sector growth (12, 03).
  5. M&A signal: the labs/hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google+Wiz) are aggregating; sub-scale AI-differentiated pure-plays (SentinelOne takeover talk) are origination; identity (CyberArk) and cyber-resilience/data (Rubrik, Varonis) are re-rating. Feeds Deals.
  6. Rule of 40 is a scale phenomenon. Stack growth + non-GAAP operating margin for the spring-2026 prints and the scaled leaders cluster half again above the line — PANW ~58 (+31%/27%) · Fortinet ~56 (+20%/36%) · CrowdStrike 50 (+26%/24%) · Zscaler ~48 (+25%/23%) — while the smallest, least platform-complete pure-play sits below it: SentinelOne ~25 (+21%/4%), its margin only now turning positive. The premium (Valuation) is paid to the cluster above the line, not the category in the abstract. (Charted as the Rule-of-40 scoreboard in Book Ch. 5 — Unit Economics of Defense; see also Unit Economics.)

Sources


Updated 2026-08-16 18:13 UTC · © El Dorado Capital · el-doradocapital.com · Market intelligence for informational purposes only; not investment advice.