Update Tracking & History Dashboard
A structured log of wiki updates at multiple timescales — daily runs, weekly summaries, monthly/quarterly/annual reviews. This dashboard allows tracking of how the cybersecurity landscape is evolving and serves as a reference for historical context within any fiscal period.
2026 · Annual Update Tracker
Year: 2026 | Status: In progress | M&A deals YTD: 219 (H1); on pace for ~438 (annual record)
| Month | Deal Count | Disclosed Value | Notable Events | Regulatory Milestones |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jan–Mar) | 99 | $13.8B | Akamai–LayerX announced; CrowdStrike–SGNL/Seraphic announced | EO 14409 anticipated; GDPR 3-year enforcement review |
| Q2 (Apr–Jun) | 106 | $8.5B | Accenture–Dragos/runZero/NetRise (~$4.18B); Google–Wiz closed (Mar 11); Palo Alto–CyberArk closed (Feb 11) | EO 14409 signed (Jun 2); BIS Fable/Mythos controls (Jun 12); Fable restored (Jul 1) |
| Q3 (Jul–Sep) | TBD | TBD | 8-vendor AI-governance launch cluster (Jul 3–10); GPT-5.6 launch (Jul 9); UK Cyber Shield announced (Jul 7) | Treasury "Gold Eagle" clearinghouse launched (Jul 14); EO 14409 60-day benchmarking leg passed Aug 1 (no public threshold — classified process) |
| Q4 (Oct–Dec) | TBD | TBD | Forecast: continued agentic-SOC/agent-identity consolidation; H2 vendor budget cycles | Cyber Resilience Act (EU), CMMC 2.0 enforcement milestones |
Weekly Update Log (Jul 2026)
Week of Jul 7–13, 2026
| Date | Loop Type | Key Updates | Pages Modified | Deals / Funding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 (Mon) | cyber-wiki-daily-update | Prospect screen gains Keyfactor row (carry-over complete); SecurityWeek June roundup watch armed | [27], [11] | Barracuda–Evo Security (announced Jul 7) |
| Jul 8 (Tue) | book-wiki-improvement-loop | Five Eyes statement (Jun 22) retroactively captured; Accenture breach (Jul 8) logged; book verification run | [20], [04d], [16] | EO 14409 clearhouse day 6 overdue |
| Jul 9 (Wed) | cyber-wiki-daily-update (2x) | Keyfactor $1B+ round, post-quantum regulation (EO 14412); Cyber Shield (UK); QIZ seed; UK Cyber Resilience Pledge | [16], [16b], [16g], [03a], [20], [14] | Keyfactor (growth round, Jul 6); QIZ ($17M seed, Jul 9) |
| Jul 10 (Thu) | cyber-wiki-daily-update | CrowdStrike prompt-injection taxonomy verified (200+ techniques); Data I/O–IAR LOI (embedded security); Barracuda–Evo logging catch | [20], [11], [ai-cyber-tracker] | Data I/O–IAR (LOI, Jul 10) |
| Jul 11 (Fri) | book-wiki-improvement-loop | GPT-5.6 launch (Jul 9) folded into pages 20e/20f/16; Fable/Mythos prerelease-framework answer; book D4 branch re-verified | [20e], [20f], [16], [CHANGELOG] | OpenAI GPT-5.6 (launched Jul 9) |
| Jul 11 (Fri) | cyber-wiki-daily-update | CrowdStrike prompt-injection (confirmed Jul 7); Data I/O–IAR (confirmed Jul 10); quiet M&A tape | [20], [11], [ai-cyber-tracker] | No new ≤72h deal print |
| Jul 12 (Sat) | cyber-wiki-daily-update | 8-vendor product-launch cluster (Jul 3–10) logged to [20]; Michael Sikorski (Coinbase CISO) added to [13]; EO 14409 clearhouse day 10 overdue | [20], [13], [ai-cyber-tracker], [CHANGELOG] | Quiet ≤72h M&A (5th consecutive) |
Monthly Update Summary — June 2026
Period: Jun 1–30, 2026 | Total M&A Deals: 39 (per Momentum Cyber mid-year review) | Disclosed Value: $4.9B
Major Transactions (June 2026)
- Accenture–Dragos/runZero/NetRise (~$4.18B) — the "deal that broke the dam" on $1B+ cyber M&A
- Cyera Series C ($12.0B valuation, $600M raise)
- DREAM (sovereign AI) Series C ($3.0B valuation)
- Coralogix (AI observability) Series F ($1.6B valuation)
Regulatory Milestones
- Jun 2, 2026: Executive Order 14409 signed ("Promoting Advanced Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Security")
- Jun 12, 2026: BIS export controls on Fable 5 & Mythos
- Jun 22, 2026: Five Eyes joint statement on AI-driven cyber risk
Market Signals
- AI-for-Security consolidating: platforms absorb agentic features; standalone pure-plays under pressure
- Security-for-AI maturing: Snyk Evo ADS (Jun 23/29), Promptfoo acquisition by OpenAI (Mar 2026), Protect AI→Palo Alto
- Post-quantum migration accelerating: Keyfactor ($1B+ round announced Jul 6, effective Jul 6 per SEC filing date), QIZ seed ($17M, Jul 9)
- OT/ICS consolidation: Accenture–Dragos signals platform players consolidating industrial cyber
M&A Comps (June 2026)
| Acquirer | Target | Value | EV/ARR | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accenture | Dragos (majority) + runZero + NetRise | ~$4.18B | ~20x (Dragos $208M ARR) | OT/asset-centric; services giant moves |
| Cisco (FQ 2026 Q4) | Splunk (closed Oct 2024, $28B) | $28B | ~7x (Splunk $4B revenue) | Legacy SIEM migration; platform consolidation |
| Palo Alto (Feb 2026) | CyberArk (closed Feb 11) | $25B | ~15.3x NTM Rev | Identity platformization; largest cyber deal of 2025 |
| Akamai (Jul 2026) | LayerX | $205M | ~20.5x NTM Rev (per bank research) | Browser/enterprise security; agentic features |
Quarterly Update Summary — Q2 2026
Period: Apr 1–Jun 30, 2026 | M&A Deals: 106 (record quarterly deal count) | Disclosed Value: $8.5B
Deal Activity by Sub-Segment
| Sub-Segment | Count | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Security Services | 30 | MSSP, consulting, IR consolidation |
| Risk & Compliance | 15 | Regulatory-driven demand |
| AI Security (new category) | 12 | Protect AI→PANW, Koi→PANW, Promptfoo→OpenAI, Snyk–Invariant, Evo ADS launch |
| Identity & Access | 8 | Machine identity, ITDR, IGA expansion |
| Cloud Security | 7 | CNAPP, DSPM, runtime security |
| Data Security | 6 | DLP, backup, resilience |
| Network Security | 5 | SASE/SSE, api security, firewall |
Regulatory Milestones (Q2)
- Apr: PCI DSS 4.0 transition period begins (migrate by Apr 2024 extended → Apr 2025)
- May: EU AI Act enters "force application" phase (prohibited practices enforceable immediately)
- Jun 2: EO 14409 signed (federal AI-cyber benchmarking mandate)
- Jun 12: BIS export controls on frontier models (Fable/Mythos)
- Jun 26–30: Fable 5 restored globally; Mythos restored to US organizations; settlement framework in place
Market Structure Shifts
- Public exits blocked: 0 IPOs, 0 take-privates in Q2; full-year 2026 on pace for 0 cyber IPOs
- Strategic dominance: ~88% of deployed capital by strategics (platforms, acquirers)
- PE share growing: PE was buyer in 36% of deals but targeting smaller/niche targets (average EV/revenue floor raised)
- Valuation reset: median strategic M&A multiple 16.8x (highest spread over PE at 5.0x ever recorded)
H1 2026 Summary
Period: Jan 1–Jun 30, 2026 | Total M&A: 205 deals (per Wall Street research) / 219 deals (per Momentum Cyber deal-count tracker) | Disclosed Value: $9.1B (disclosed only; $22.3B incl. estimates)
Defining Trends
- Record deal count on lower disclosed value — fragmentation of the market; consolidation happening below the $100M publicly-disclosed threshold
- Mega-deal impact: Accenture–Dragos (~$4.18B), Palo Alto–CyberArk ($25B closed), Google–Wiz ($32B closed Mar 11) account for >60% of disclosed value
- AI inflection: 29 AI-security M&A transactions logged; "AI for Security" and "Security for AI" as distinct deal types
- No public exits: every exit is strategic or PE; IPO market remains closed; sell-side advisors are anchoring expectations on M&A buyers, not public markets
- Export controls established: EO 14409 + BIS Fable/Mythos controls set the precedent for AI-as-strategic-asset regulation; will shape deal structures (CFIUS scrutiny, prerelease-review hold-ups)
Valuation Benchmarks (H1)
| Metric | Figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Median SaaS M&A multiple | 8.8x EV/LTM Rev | vs 6.8x in 2022–24 correction; vs 8.6x pandemic peak |
| Strategic buyer multiple | 16.8x | vs PE buyer at 5.0x (widest spread on record) |
| %of deals at ≤5.0x | ~34% | Disciplined market; no "dumb money" multiples |
| Public-market multiples | ~7.8x | Significant spread vs M&A comps indicates M&A is pricing "control," "AI integration," or "strategic scarcity" |
| Cloud-security ceiling | ~21.7x | Wiz comp (highest) — now completed at Google; sets precedent |
H2 2026 Forecast & Watch Items
Expected developments (Jul–Dec 2026):
| Category | Watch Item | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation | EO 14409 ≈Aug 1 60-day benchmarking results | Aug 1, 2026 | 30-day clearinghouse leg landed Jul 14 ("Gold Eagle," Treasury/VINCE); 60-day benchmarking leg passed Aug 1 with no published "covered frontier model" threshold (classified multi-agency process; framework voluntary, no mandatory licensing) — runs as an early-access channel, evidenced by the GPT-5.6 prerelease pass (Jul 9) |
| M&A Pipeline | SecurityWeek June 2026 roundup publish | Jun 2026 | Published Jul 13 (37 deals); reconciled against [11] Jul 15 |
| Post-Quantum | NIST FIPS 203/204/205 adoption begins | Q3/Q4 2026 | Keyfactor as capitalized consolidator; CyberArk–Venafi precedent ($1.54B 2024) |
| AI Export | Frontier model prerelease-review generalizes | Q3/Q4 2026 | GPT-5.6 (Jul 9) = 2nd non-Anthropic pass; monitor OpenAI/Google participation |
| Regulatory Ramp | UK Cyber Security & Resilience Bill | Q4 2026 | Cyber Resilience Pledge (60 signatories, Jul 7) as soft-law precursor |
| Agentic Defense | CISA + NSA + UK NCSC program expansion | H2 2026 | Sovereign AI now a three-nation commitment; private-sector partnerships expand |
| Services Consolidation | Major MSSP roll-ups continue | H2 2026 | Zscaler–Red Canary (Aug 2025); LevelBlue–Trustwave (ongoing); next tuck-in targets = smaller MSSPs |
| Take-Privates | Rapid7 (public pure-play, activist pressure) + others | Q4 2026 | Wael Mohamed (Advent pedigree) installed as CEO (Jun 1) = take-private signal |
Annual Updates & Year-Over-Year Trends
2024 vs 2025 vs 2026 (YTD)
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (H1) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M&A deal count | 280 | 339 | 219 (H1; ~438 pace) | ↑ +56% YoY (pace) |
| Disclosed M&A value | $53.3B | $84.1B | $9.1B (H1; ~$18.2B pace) | ↓ −78% (disclosed only) but ↑ on estimated value |
| $1B+ mega-deals | 8 | 11 | 4 (Google–Wiz, Palo Alto–CyberArk, Accenture–Dragos, pending others) | Concentration continues |
| AI-security M&A | <5 | ~15 | 29 (H1) | ↑ +93% YoY |
| Public-market exits | 3 IPOs | 1 IPO, 2 take-privates | 0 IPOs, 0 take-privates | ↓ Public exits closed |
| PE % of deals | 38% | 35% | 36% | Stable; strategics dominant |
| Median multiple (EV/LTM Rev) | 6.8x | 8.6x | 8.8x | Stabilizing after reset |
| Gartner security spend | ~$210B | ~$244B | ~$272B (est.) | ↑ +13% YoY |
| Ransomware damage (est.) | ~$30B | ~$57B | H1 run rate ~$28B | ↑ +90% YoY 2024→2025; ↔ flat 2026 |
Key Drivers Year-Over-Year
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Google–Wiz announced ($32B, Mar) | Mega-deals dominate ($84.1B on 339 deals) | Deal count record (pace ~438); value lower on disclosed basis |
| ServiceNow–Armis consolidation talk | Palo Alto–CyberArk close ($25B, Feb); multiple reset begins | AI export controls + EO 14409 reshape deal structures |
| SIEM displacement debate begins | Splunk (Cisco) close & integration drag surface | Agentic-SOC/agent-identity become M&A poles |
| Ransomware as economics | RaaS takedowns (Conti leaks) begin; LockBit 3.0 ascends | Autonomy reaches agentic ransomware (JADEPUFFER) |
| Prerelease-review regime hardens (Fable/Mythos → GPT-5.6) |
Angle: Tracking M&A Triggers & Prospect Signals
Use this dashboard to spot revenue-objective signals:
Objective 1 (Buy-side retainers): - Watch for new operator-CEO hires at PE-backed platforms (e.g., Wael Mohamed at Rapid7, John Clancy at Bitsight) — these often precede a Corp Dev hire → retainer opportunity - Track mega-fund closes (Thoma Bravo $34.4B raised 2024; Crosspoint $32B; Insight/Sixth Street follow-on rounds) — dried powder signals portfolio M&A activity ahead
- Monitor vendor consolidation of AI-security features — feature-ification compresses the pure-play window
Objective 3 (Deliver for clients / comps): - SecurityWeek monthly M&A roundups — the deal-comps source; watch for publication delays (currently 12+ days overdue for June) - Quarterly earnings calls (Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Cisco, Zscaler) — platforms telegraph M&A strategy / portfolio changes - Wall Street research M&A multiples — the benchmark for deal pricing; track median EV/Revenue and strategic-vs-PE spreads
References
- Momentum Cyber — Mid-Year 2026 Review (219 deals, $9.1B disclosed; published Jul 1 2026)
- SecurityWeek — Monthly M&A Roundups (May 2026, 26 deals; June 2026 roundup pending)
- Infosecurity Magazine — Monthly M&A Roundups (June 2026, 6 named deals)
- Wall Street research — Q2/Q3 2026 Cybersecurity Market Reviews (205 deals, $22.3B incl. estimates; published 6/30/26)
- Gartner — Market size estimates 2024–2026 ($210B → $272B)
- White House — EO 14409 and related directives (published Jun 5, 2026 Federal Register)
- NIST / CISA / NSA — Cybersecurity strategy documents and joint statements (2026)
Updated 2026-08-16 18:13 UTC · © El Dorado Capital · el-doradocapital.com · Market intelligence for informational purposes only; not investment advice.