The Business of Cyber Security

Exits: M&A, IPO and Public Markets

Thoma Bravo took SailPoint private in 2022 for $6.9B, ran it through a private hold, and priced its re-IPO on Feb 12, 2025 at $23.00/share (first trade Feb 13, Nasdaq: SAIL) — a ~$12.8B market value, raising ~$1.38B (SailPoint, Bloomberg). The return was not a single multiple but a route choice: buy at a public discount, improve privately, and exit back into the public market when the identity narrative and the IPO window aligned. The same asset can be worth materially different amounts in the private, strategic and public markets at the same instant, and the exit decision is a matter of selling into whichever one is paying most.

Exit into the highest-priced market

The three pricing regimes — public, private, M&A — rarely agree (Valuation). A sponsor or founder exits into whichever regime is paying the most for their asset at that moment, net of the certainty and cost of getting there. That makes exit selection a live, market-timing decision rather than a fixed plan:

Not exiting — the option value of independence. Before the five routes sits another option: not selling. Staying independent is a priced call option on a higher bid later, paid for with the risk that the window closes or the category gets bundled away. Wiz is the canonical case: it rejected Alphabet's reported ~$23B (Jul 2024), pushed toward $1B ARR and an IPO, then agreed to sell to the same acquirer for $32B (announced Mar 2025, completed Mar 11 2026) — a ~39% step-up for the patience. The lesson is not "always hold out" (survivorship bias); a less-scarce asset that declines a fair bid often watches its category consolidate around it and sells later for less. The option is worth its risk only with durable hypergrowth, undisputed category ownership, a balance sheet that funds the wait, and scarcity the next buyer cannot manufacture elsewhere. When those hold, independence can be the highest-EV route; when they do not, selling into scarcity remains the base case. Most companies are not Wiz. (Mirrors Book Ch 15; see Buy-Side Prospect Framework for the inverse read on when an asset becomes gettable.)

The five routes, compared

Route Who buys Pays Certainty / speed When it wins
Strategic sale A platform/vendor (03), occasionally a CVC (08) Highest — control + synergy premium High; one counterparty, fast once agreed Hot consolidation; asset fills a named suite gap
Secondary buyout Another sponsor (06c) Market private multiple; no synergy premium High; sponsor-to-sponsor processes are efficient Public window shut; asset has more value-creation runway for a new owner
IPO Public-market investors Public multiple; episodic, window-dependent Low/variable — needs an open window; pricing risk Open window + growth story; founders/VCs want a liquid currency
Re-IPO Public markets, after a private hold Public multiple on an improved asset Low/variable The take-private round-trip completes (SailPoint)
Continuation vehicle (CV) A new fund (often same GP) + secondary LPs Negotiated NAV; no control/synergy premium High; increasingly standardized Hold a "trophy" asset past fund life; return capital to old LPs

Two structures sit across these: a dual-track runs an IPO and a sale simultaneously to discover which market pays more (and to keep a strategic honest with the threat of a public listing); and the SPAC, the 2020–21 fad, is now largely a post-mortem route used only when conventional ones are closed.

Exit routes — valuation vs. certainty of execution high low valuation paid → certainty / speed of execution → low high Strategic sale IPO / re-IPO window-dependent Secondary buyout Continuation vehicle Dual-track SPAC (post-mortem) Positions are directional. The strategic sale generally pays the most with the most certainty; the IPO can match or beat it on price but only when the window is open. CVs/secondaries trade price for certainty when public/strategic routes are shut.
The exit decision is a trade between price and certainty. Strategic sales usually win on both in a hot consolidation market; IPOs offer comparable or higher valuations but only episodically, when the window is open; secondaries and continuation vehicles manufacture certainty (and liquidity) at the cost of the synergy/control premium when neither public nor strategic markets are paying.

The IPO window is a regime, not a date

The single most important fact about the IPO route is that it is episodic — it opens and shuts with the macro, and a cyber company cannot will a closed window open:

The lesson for a sponsor: the IPO is a route available only when the market allows it. That asymmetry is why the strategic sale remains the base case and why continuation vehicles expanded when the window was shut.

The continuation vehicle

When neither public nor strategic markets clear an asset at an acceptable price, sponsors increasingly sell the asset to themselves: a new fund (often the same GP, with new secondary-market LPs) buys the company at a negotiated NAV, giving old LPs liquidity and the GP more time on a prized asset. CVs became a recognized fourth exit route — roughly 16% of sponsor exit volume in Q3 2025 (up ~70% YoY), against a secondaries market of ~$226B in 2025 (Hold Periods & Exit Timing). For cyber specifically, the CV is how a Thoma Bravo or Vista holds a category-leading platform past a fund's life rather than dumping it into a thin market — the structural answer to the DPI-pressure problem (06i).

Why the route choice matters for M&A advisory

The exit decision sets the buyer universe and the process design. A strategic sale means building a list of platforms that need the capability (03/08) and selling synergy; an IPO means an equity story, public comps (12a) and a banking syndicate; a secondary means a sponsor list and a clean equity story for a financial buyer. The dual-track exists precisely because the highest-value route is not knowable in advance — running both discovers the price and disciplines the strategic bidder with a credible alternative.

Cross-references: Deal Structures & Exits, Deal Structures, M&A Deals & Comps, Valuation, Public Trading Comps, Private Equity, Value-Creation Case: SailPoint, Hold Periods & Exit Timing, Fund Structures & LP Dynamics, Venture Capital, Bear Case & Disruption.

Sources — SailPoint re-IPO ($6.9B take-private 2022; priced Feb 12 2025 at $23, first trade Feb 13, Nasdaq: SAIL, ~$12.8B, ~$1.38B raised): SailPoint pricing PR, Bloomberg, Feb 13 2025; Netskope IPO (priced Sep 17 2025 at $19, ~$7.3B, ~$908M, NTSK): CNBC, Sep 17 2025; Rubrik IPO (Apr 24–25 2024, $32, ~$5.6B, ~$752M, RBRK): CNBC, Apr 24 2024; 2026 pipeline candidates: Strategy of Security; CV/secondaries figures per 06h. IPO dates labeled priced/listed; pipeline names tagged as reported candidates, not confirmed filings.


Updated 2026-08-16 18:13 UTC · © El Dorado Capital · el-doradocapital.com · Market intelligence for informational purposes only; not investment advice.